Application of performance metrics to climate models for projecting future river discharge in the Chao Phraya River basin
January 31st, 2014
Satoshi Watanabe, Yukiko Hirabayashi, Shunji Kotsuki, Naota Hanasaki, Kenji Tanaka, Cherry May R. Mateo, Masashi Kiguchi, Eiji Ikoma, Shinjiro Kanae, Taikan Oki
Released: January 31, 2014
Application of performance metrics to climate models for projecting future river discharge in the Chao Phraya River basin
Satoshi Watanabe1), Yukiko Hirabayashi1), Shunji Kotsuki2), Naota Hanasaki3), Kenji Tanaka4), Cherry May R. Mateo5), Masashi Kiguchi5), Eiji Ikoma6), Shinjiro Kanae7), Taikan Oki5)
1) Institute of Engineering Innovation, The University of Tokyo
2) Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University
3) National Institute for Environmental Studies
4) Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University
5) Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo
6) Earth Observation Data Integration & Fusion Research Initiative, The University of Tokyo
7) Department of Civil Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology
Future river discharge in the Chao Phraya River basin was projected based on the performance of multiple General Circulation Models (GCMs). We developed a bias-corrected future climate dataset termed IDD (IMPAC-T Driving Dataset) under which the H08 hydrological model was used to project future river discharge. The IDD enabled us to conduct a projection that considered the spread in projections derived from multiple GCMs. Multiple performance-based projections were obtained using the correlation of monsoon precipitation between GCMs and several observations. The performance-based projections indicated that future river discharge in September increased 60%–90% above that of the retrospective simulation. Our results highlight the importance of appropriate evaluation for the performance of GCMs.
Copyright (c) 2014 Japan Society of Hydrology and Water Resources