Hydrological response to future climate change in the Agano River basin, Japan
March 27th, 2010
Xieyao Ma, Takao Yoshikane, Masayuki Hara, Yasutaka Wakazuki, Hiroshi G Takahashi and Fujio Kimura
Release Date: March 27, 2010
Hydrological response to future climate change in the Agano River basin, Japan
Xieyao Ma1), Takao Yoshikane1), Masayuki Hara1), Yasutaka Wakazuki1), Hiroshi G Takahashi1)2) and Fujio Kimura1)3)
1) Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
2) Department of Geography, Tokyo Metropolitan University
3) Institute of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba
(Received: December 14, 2009)
(Accepted for publication: March 3, 2010)
Abstract:
To evaluate the impact of climate change on snowfall in Japan, a hydrological simulation was made in the Agano River basin by using a regional climate model’s output. A hindcast experiment was carried out for the two decades from 1980 to 1999. The average correlation coefficient of 0.79 for the monthly mean discharge in the winter season showed that the interannual variation of the river discharge could be reproduced and that the method can be used for climate change study. The future hydrological response to global warming in the 2070s was investigated using a pseudo-global-warming method. In comparison to data from the 1990s, the monthly mean discharge for the 2070s was projected to increase by approximately 43% in January and 55% in February, but to decrease by approximately 38% in April and 32% in May. The flood peak in the hydrograph was moved forward by approximately one month, changing from April in the 1990s to March in the 2070s. Furthermore, the projection for the 10-year average snowfall amount was projected to be approximately 49.5% lower in the 2070s than in the 1990s.
To cite this article:
Xieyao Ma, Takao Yoshikane, Masayuki Hara, Yasutaka Wakazuki, Hiroshi G Takahashi and Fujio Kimura: “Hydrological response to future climate change in the Agano River basin, Japan”, Hydrological Research Letters, Vol. 4, pp.25-29, (2010) .
doi:10.3178/hrl.4.25
JOI JST.JSTAGE/hrl/4.25
Copyright (c) 2010 Japan Society of Hydrology and Water Resources