Projection of future typhoons landing on Japan based on a stochastic typhoon model utilizing AGCM projections
July 15th, 2010
Tomohiro Yasuda, Hajime Mase and Nobuhito Mori
Release Date: July 15, 2010
Projection of future typhoons landing on Japan based on a stochastic typhoon model utilizing AGCM projections
Tomohiro Yasuda1), Hajime Mase1) and Nobuhito Mori1)
1) Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University
(Received: December 9, 2009)
(Accepted for publication: June 24, 2010)
Abstract:
This study presents a stochastic typhoon model (STM) for estimating the characteristics of typhoons in the present and future climate conditions. Differences between statistical characteristics of present and future typhoons were estimated from projections by an Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) under a climate change scenario and are taken into account in the stochastic modeling of future typhoons as a climate change signal. From the STM results which utilize the Monte Carlo simulation, it was found that the frequency of typhoon landfall in Japan, especially in three major bay areas, will decrease and the mean value of typhoon central atmospheric pressure will not change significantly. An important point is that the arrival probability of stronger typhoons will increase in the future climate scenario.
To cite this article:
Tomohiro Yasuda, Hajime Mase and Nobuhito Mori: “Projection of future typhoons landing on Japan based on a stochastic typhoon model utilizing AGCM projections”, Hydrological Research Letters, Vol. 4, pp.65-69, (2010) .
doi:10.3178/hrl.4.65
JOI JST.JSTAGE/hrl/4.65
Copyright (c) 2010 Japan Society of Hydrology and Water Resources