Jung-A Yang, Sooyoul Kim, Nobuhito Mori, Hajime Mase
Received 2017/03/06, Accepted 2017/04/19, Published 2017/05/25

Jung-A Yang1), Sooyoul Kim2), Nobuhito Mori3), Hajime Mase3)

1) Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University
2) Graduate School of Engineering, Tottori University
3) Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University

In this study, we propose a new approach for model validation that can be applied to the projection of possible future storm surge heights (SSHs) on the regional scale. First, this study conducts a series of SSHs for the southeastern coast of the Korean Peninsula (KP) by six typhoons that produced SSHs over 1.0 m since 1979 and identifies the bias between simulated and observed SSHs. Next, formulas for the bias correction using a geographic parameter, in particular the coastline complexity factors, are drawn and validated. Finally, the effect of the proposed bias correction on projection of future SSHs is examined by performing simple tests to consider only central pressure drops to reflect the impact of climate change. It can be seen that the bias correction method considering the coastline complexity can improve the model’s accuracy by 14% to 23% and prevent potential overestimation by up to 20% of the maximum SSHs considering climate change effect on the southeastern coast of the KP.

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Copyright (c) 2017 The Author(s) CC-BY 4.0